United States on November 12, the Wall Street Journal article, the original question: the crisis of Europe, in China and the United States who will be the first trip?

It is well known that existing economic model of the 3 largest economies in the world are unsustainable. Investors are uneasy looking China towards a hard landing, United States sign of recession, euro-zone will crash. Three of those who will be the first one being their trip?

In Europe, stringent measures are in place but difficult to implement because the parties to the main causes of the problem arguing. Germany and other countries be better off condemns Greek-Portuguese Italian extravagance, fearing that assistance will slow self-correcting pressure on these countries as soon as possible. Then considered the serious imbalance across the eurozone, to make it back on track, Germany should be reduced, such as exports and increased consumption.

At present, the euro area countries and the EU institutions are still trying to ride out the storm, but its idle excessively bureaucratic practice will be to sustain. Loss of confidence in market reform measures that have been broken. Continental Europe into steep decline. EU is or will be the first out of the economy.

A clear need for economic reform in China. 4 years ago the country’s leaders warned China’s economic model “unsteady, uncoordinated, unbalanced and unsustainable,” and 3 years ago, the financial crisis has been to highlight China’s growth was still too dependent on exports to Europe, America and Japan.

In order to ensure that economic growth (and political stability), Beijing strategy to be developed to encourage consumers to buy more local products. This requires a large amount of wealth from the national and State-owned enterprises flow to the general public, return wealth to the people. But Beijing’s response to the West of recession is to increase of national and private fixed investment spending, now almost half of growth depends on fixed investment. This led to rapid expansion of real estate, more flow of cheap loans from State banks to State-owned enterprises. 2010 Forbes Global 500 39 42 Chinese companies are State-owned, State-controlled enterprise in its top 100 listed companies in the ratio of three-fourths. And State Enterprise officials have close interest in high accumulation of considerable strength. Therefore, despite having put off crisis of money and foreign exchange reserves, but China’s growth is slowing, rising financial pressures, there is reason to fear the country could barely support days have been numbered.

United States how to? For now, the us share of fiscal revenue in GDP has dropped to 60-year low, if it is not practical to cut government and military expenditure and increase revenue, and no one is going to have confidence in the long-term financial position. But don’t expect Washington to come up with ways at once. Disputes and political stalemate would only exacerbate political parties in an election year, this means that the structural problems of the US economy will continue to exist.

But compared with Europe or China, United States many of the future seems bright. It was still dominate the field of cutting-edge technologies, including renewable energy, nanotechnology, medical devices, and so on. Over time, these advantages will effectively promote their economic growth. United States also has a population of advantage. Europe’s falling birth rate and anti-immigrant sentiment that the population in 2050 reduction of 100 million years ago. One-child policy has made labor declined in China, Beijing will pay a heavy costs for pension and health care. It is estimated that during 2005, United States labor force population will increase by 37%, Central Europe would be reduced and 10% respectively.

Despite enormous challenges, public angry, but now most likely to solve the problem is the United States, it is very likely faster than the EU out of the crisis.